What To Do If The Market Dips... Season 5 Ep 42
About this episode
With a return to the "Value Box" , Gary and Jason offer experience and advice for navigating a dip in the market. Is now a time to be worried? No, it's a time to be ready! Follow The Ballcard Show on socials @TheBallcardShow Full Video Episodes on Youtube @theballcardshowThe Ballcard ShowGary LeMasterJason Otero
This episode is published by Ball Card Show.
Transcript
Machine transcript — exact wording may vary.
Hello and welcome to a special edition of the ball card show the sports podcast for the sports collector I'm Jason Otero. I'm Gary Lomaster. This is season 5 episode 42 We are closing in on the end of the year here, but aren't we we are and at some point here in the next week or So we will tell you guys what the holiday schedule is gonna look like. We've got a couple things that we want to try to do We'll need your help for but if we can pull them off, they'll be fun and I'm guessing that we will probably tell I have no idea what you're talking about. I can't remember. Yeah, we want to try to do a live episode Sometime between Christmas and New Year's hop on either here or hop on YouTube and have some fun and hang out with you guys take questions live and just see where it goes and then I'm guessing that we will probably Take a week or two and just breathe over the holidays 42 straight weeks 42 straight episodes for us is an absolute Record and has been an absolute grind. It's been fun, but we're pretty tired We're tired, but we're excited Give our little state of the hobby this year for us, I guess You know for those you've been following, you know that we've only dropped video for about a year It's been really cool to see that when people could see us they actually engaged a little more Which is the opposite of what I would have expected But in this year Gary and I have set up it I mean, I don't know how many shows probably close to 40 at this point 35 to 40 shows We have traveled a lot more but we have this whole community that really was Slim to non-existent before this year now shout out to the OG listeners back when you could barely hear audio We didn't know how to turn up game use microphones Content was a lot less Prepared than it is now But yeah, it's it's been a great year And what's crazy is we've just been honored like we didn't think people would say yes We asked for interviews like say anybody else starting this thing. You don't know what's gonna happen So to have people respond, yeah, I'd love to do that. And then this week, I don't know if it's dropped yet If it is go check it out But we were given Danny a hard time from cut the nonsense about saying no negative Content is gonna be helpful to the hobby and he's backtracked. He clarified a little bit But Gary and I were able to hop on with sports cards nonsense network and do an interview there So go check it out. We had some fun. Definitely a lot of ranting going on As always, but yeah, check out cut the nonsense whenever it's up It may be up now may have been up for a couple days, but be sure to check that out But way more ahead. We're so excited for it. I don't have a commercial. What a long introduction tops chrome jumbo first day issue $3,500 reverse auction starting price that is a mouthful Gary let's let's break this down. I'm gonna say one thing set you up and let you go. Okay, nobody could find jumbo Nobody knew where it was. LCS is weren't getting them. A lot of breakers weren't getting them and then pops releases an announcement Go ahead Gary. Yes, so that's that's exactly where I was going with this. They did the pre-release on the website They offered jumbos to the people who are fast enough to type into the website and get them. They were 700 bucks That was more expensive than people were anticipating but it was what it was They jumped what 1200 bucks on the secondary market already Then They were not offered to anyone LCS is weren't offered them. We were on Like Jason said with the guys over cut the nonsense and Mike said he wasn't even offered them. So Then tops releases the day after that $3,500 Starting point on a Dutch auction now the first release they had said it was gonna be a reverse Dutch auction Which is a if they go that route, I Think that's fine. The starting I read something last night that there was a clarification that it is a reverse Dutch Okay auction, but again, it's everybody with the blue check that talks about sports car saying this is what's happening. That's what's happening There's a lot of misinformation because everybody's trying to race to be the first one to break the news. So oh, we're not positive You know now if you don't know what a reverse Dutch auction is, it's it's actually really simple The price starts at $3,500 it goes down every few minutes at a predetermined pace Whatever the floor price ends up being what it sells out is what everybody pays So if you if you went in one of your you want to get your business because that's how you can confirm how much you're Gonna get correct if everybody plays that same game and it sells out in five minutes at 2,500 bucks That's what everybody wants. Yep. That's what everybody pays so the reverse Dutch auction I kind of don't hate that because they like the game letting the market play a little bit you like the game Well, yeah, and and you're also letting the market kind of have a say in where it lands As a whole because if if it ends up at 1,800 bucks and that's what everybody paid Then you don't have this weird dichotomy that we've ended up with panini over the last few years where some people paid Four grand for this box and some people paid eighteen hundred dollars for this box and what's the real market value?
You don't have to deal with that. Sure it's still a wild move to go from 700 bucks at pre-order to 3,500 bucks as a starting point on a Dutch auction and the only thing you changed was hey We did throw these two extra pair. Well, that's well, that's so essentially they're just the irony here They're going full panini Full panini move the first day issue first off the line And if you think for a second if you think for one second as you hear about this That this is not going to get snatched up by breakers and then broke at 30% over Whatever this number is for sure. You have lost your mind at least Over at least confers. Some of these people will have a head start Now the Dutch auction I don't know if it's the same way. I know one releases it is But if we drop at 35, I cannot see a world where the Dutch auction ends below 2k. You're starting so high Nobody knows what these first day issues are gonna draw in value so literally the people clicking the button to say what they're paying for this case are Determining a starting value for this whatever this new insert is this first off the line first day issue Whatever they're gonna call it And by the time you guys see this episode We will know what that is because we're recording this the day before that Dutch auction goes live But it's it's interesting that this is timed up the way that it has for fanatics because Here's the key. Who's the chase in this product in this product?
well Scooper for me. Yeah edge comes doing since he's playing really well Flags the guy and what is flagged on over the last four or five games? He's gone off like he's gone off multiple 30-point games Like he's gone off. So the timing is good And it's gonna be a release that people want. It's the first licensed tops Chrome release in 15 years. Yeah, so People people are gonna want it people are gonna go after it and it does look pretty good I'll give tops that they did a good job on the design with it We'll see but yeah tops chrome. Let's play a game. Let's play. I Want to play a fun one. I don't want to say where do they end up because anybody can play that. Yep Where do the first let's just say first handful of options first five Sold on the Cooper flag base refractor rookie the first ones to hit eBay and sell the base refractor 150 bucks. I Think it will be north of that you do. I think there is There and here's why it's not about where it should be. Yeah People are clamoring right now. The market is shaky things look different than they did six months ago Breakers are not getting some of these skews. They were expecting you cannot tell me There's that every single breaker was expecting this jumbo problem to be solved by now. They don't have it Yeah, I don't have it. So their only option is to become a raving fanatic for fanatics I'm serious you know, here's the thing. I love tops chrome licensed basketball football. I can't wait for it dynasty's gonna be unbelievable, but the problem is if We start Crowning these cards at 250 300 bucks, which I think it averages over 200 on the first. I think it's insane Wow, it's not about where it should be. They have to cheer this on You have to cheer this on if you're seeing a little bit of softening in the market You have got to pump something and that's a place people are in that are forced to overpay for a product by choice They're choosing they're choosing to click that number. Yes. I want a case of those at that price. Yes I'll have five more and the only way they can do this without losing money is to charge more So they're gonna try to they're gonna try to prop up the value wherever they can and I think there's gonna be hot now Here's the thing Do you watch his workouts in the Olympics?
Cooper flag. Oh Yeah, he as a 17 year old. He was dominating it. Oh, yes Yeah, so I you know, I could say once these 200 you guys are like you're missing it. He's a generational talent Tell us something we haven't heard five times every year when a product releases. Okay, that's time will tell time will tell unless you got Schiller whales all over like they do with the Trey young cards have no business with those numbers, right? Probably the most chilled player in the NBA whoever has that big section of the market is trying to get their money back, but Maybe he's that guy. I don't pay for the maybe as a singles dealer So a lot of people do and that's the scary part It's it's to your point and we're gonna get into this later because guys little hint. It's been a minute We've had a lot of interviews lately, but the value box is coming back today you box today, baby How you box today, so we're gonna get deeper into this in a little bit, but to Jason's point It's it will never cease to be humorous to me How many people bring stuff like Jason's talking about to our table and are Flabbergasted that we just aren't interested. Yeah, they're like, what do you mean?
You don't want this this silver Drake may I well I mean I want it but not at the price you want to sell it for like but you can sell it fast I don't maybe But I can sell it fast if you want to sell it cheap. I don't I don't I'm gonna get way more excited if somebody brings that card, you know to my table No, and I won't sell it fast, but I don't care All right, so let's talk a little bit about this is kind of becoming the elephant in the room In just about everybody's content in the last few weeks. What's happening to the market?
Is there a market correction the market is softening? Some shows don't have as many people the high-end market is screaming But ultra modern quarterbacks that were rookies didn't do what they've done in the past. What do we do? And we just want to start off. Let's start off by acknowledging Yeah stuff seems to be a little bit different right now in the short time. I've been doing this. This is the third time It's the third time in like seven years. Yep. That's pretty normal So Those of you that are nervous are the ones that paid way too strong That believe that it's up and to the right you did it with GameStop You did it with some of those altcoins and crypto You did it with every event if it's a Jordan you got to buy it up because you're gonna get paid on StockX. Hey, right When the money moves to a new speculation There's a lot of people left holding the bag But it's not just that it's been a weird year in this hobby for news Now we can't act like last year wasn't weird fanatics is scooping everything up paninis going under there's a lawsuit back and forth But this year the part that's been so concerning to me as we look back as you got the dr Beckett interview then he doubles down and the thing most concerning to me about that It's just the nonchalant nature and the clear reality that there is a good old boys club of guys That have been doing this for check for each other. They've already known the auction houses that allow you to bid on your own cards They're already familiar with state laws And well this company can do it because they are allowed to do this and that whenever they can feed you that answer right away just know a Chunk of this market is being wildly manipulated. Well, and so people are gonna leave because of that high-end market to your point over the last few weeks We were talking to Mike Geo about this the other day and he was talking about he had invested in some PSA 10 Jordan, I'm not Jordan bird magic Julia serving the bird magic rookie the truth So over a quarter of a million dollar card 300 $350,000 card and There were a few that were going off at 7 750 and he was like, I'm not touching that card anywhere near that like cuz I don't have any faith that those are real numbers like I heard a real good analogy from card clubhouse Junkwax hero does Mike does the weekly news? I follow that great content, by the way He's not gonna I love that. He's nuts. He's done try to be super animated with everything He's like, here's what I'm saying. This is cool. This is bullcrap. Here's what happened this week This is bullcrap, here's what happened this week, I guess they branched out they've got a network They're building some stuff out and then his partner in that I forgive me for forgetting the name of this moment, but he said There are some just strikingly familiar parallels with the 2008 housing crisis. You have people that are Winning quickly They're immediately moving that equity to multiply this over more and more houses because houses are going up $10,000 a month Over and over and over and it works and it works and it works until it doesn't anymore Because people cannot pay to play people cannot afford a house and when that happens And you're sitting on ten houses You have some decisions to make and I think what is happening now isn't a full-blown crash I'm not gonna say it's the same as that, but I do think that's the same mindset It's moving up into the right.
It's going to keep moving up into the right. So I just need to go bigger, bigger, bigger, bigger. Yeah. 90% is fine because we're talking about a $5,000 card. Yeah. 90% is fine. 95 I'll pay. I'll pay a hundred percent. This thing's going to go up 30%. Maybe. Well, let's, let's talk about a specific card and like Jason said in the, in the short period of time, relatively that he's been heavily back into the hobby since right before COVID so five or six years, he's seen two or three dips and dives in the market in 2021 at the absolute peak of the COVID boom, which is the highest the sports car market has been in decades, PSA, 10 Michael Jordan rookies were consistently doing over a million dollars.
What are they now? Two 50 to 70, still a big card, but if you paid 90%. On that thinking you were getting a deal and you were just holding it. You got waxed the guys who made money. Yeah. The guys who made money on that card are the guys who bought it for five grand in 2015 and held it until it went to a million dollars. Now here's the thing about this. And it's a lot like Bitcoin. Okay. Any alternative investment class, there are going to be these. The key is two things. One, every dip, the floor at the bottom of that dip is usually higher than the last dip, right?
So over time, like the stock market, it continually moves up, even though there are these crazy wild rides in between. But what we want to get into today, and we're going to dive in, in depth to is remember every time there's a boom, there's a new wave of people coming in. And a lot of those people, a lot of them, I don't want to say they're not serious people because they are, but they're not serious about this particular hobby. They're not serious about sports cards. They're not serious about TCG.
What they're serious about, I mean, they're not collectors. They're not here to, to be part of this hobby for the longterm. They see a money making opportunity. And that's what they're serious about. They're serious about making money while they can. And as soon as that dip happens, they bounce. Now the positive thing is all those people come in, is there's going to be a percentage of them that actually ended up falling in love with this hobby and they stick around. And that's how the hobby organically grows over time through these dips.
Um, so when you are thinking about like where to turn, what to do, you bought some stuff, what do you, what do you do with the dip? Uh, remember, and, and we're going to get into it pretty in depth here in a little while, those two things matter, like the people that are, that are pushing a lot of the money around, aren't going to be here in a year. Um, but then when the market starts to heat up again in another two years, there'll be a new group of those people back and they'll push the market and it's how you navigate those ups and downs.
If you plan to be here for a longterm. And again, a lot of you that are watching this, a lot of our listeners, a lot of our viewers are people who are either full-time dealers like we are, or people who are at least part-time trying to make this a business. Those things are really important to keep in mind as you navigate this. Yeah. So when we think about a market softening, let's talk about the things that we see. Um, that are indicators for us. And again, there are people in this space that have been doing this way longer than Gary and I combined.
You know, uh, there are people with a lot of experience that have seen even more dips. They've been through it. We interviewed, uh, Keith Newhart with Newhart cards, uh, last week. That gave us a fantastic interview. It was such good perspective. He, he brought us back to 2012 when five-star dropped at two 50 a box. And he was like, I will never sell this. No one's going to buy it. So a lot can change in a short amount of time. Um, but there's a few factors I think that are playing into this really big, that give us indicators that the market might be softening a little bit.
One of the first ones for me, we didn't realize it at the time, but we began to notice the low end market was slowing down for me. I thought that a lot of this was eBay. And I certainly have my gripes with some of the things that they do, especially regarding standard envelope. They could solve so many problems with a couple of tweaks, but they refuse to, because screw those guys. Um, they'd rather get their money from Probe Steam. Secondly, secondly, that's aggressive, but it's true. You see a lot of money moving into adjacent spaces.
The Pokemon boom is not all Pokemon collectors, a huge wave of this as a conversion to a more liquid space and a more affordable wax, although their time is coming very soon, we will no longer be affordable. The other thing you see happening in a softening market is positioning. Now I am no financial expert. I'm just saying the things that I've seen as this has happened a few times. When those bigger cards start soaring and all your ultra modern wax that costs so much, and you have a rookie class that just kind of underperforms like this year, and there's no interest in the showcases it shows in that first month of the football season.
All of these things point to market shifts, saturation, price point, affordability, the economy, tons of stuff play in. Can you think of some other ones? You mentioned show traction. How would you explain it? It's not that all shows are struggling. Some are thriving. Yeah. What we've noticed over the last probably six months is that there was this huge wave of new shows that started showing up. Um, a lot of them smaller, a lot of them in rural areas. Um, and the, the small local show, the less than 50 tables, uh, very few of those shows now can generate foot traffic.
Um, a lot. If you talk to guys who do this a lot, what they're going to tell you is the ratio of customers to tables needs to be eight to 10 customers in the door for every table that you sell. So if you're selling a 50 table room, you need four to 500 people to show up to make that worthwhile for your dealers. Uh, or seeing those shows get 50 to 70 people to come through the door. Well, there's, there's a couple of things. So this hobby has been very inviting because there's quick money. Like I think about like, if I would have understood, if I understood what AI and a scanner would do for the low end market three years ago, when it was first being talked about, I don't think people realize the race to be the first one that has 50,000 cards up in three months.
I mean, if you hired somebody out and you could probably do it in a month or two. Yeah. The opportunity, the opportunity there is, is pretty significant. Yeah. So like, but the show issue where we're, so we're seeing fewer people at those shows, however, the big shows we're going to show this weekend, about four hours away, um, the big shows are still seeing, we're going to the fort. Uh, it's a B sport show up in Indiana, just 10 minutes North of Fort Wayne. So if you don't have anything to do tomorrow, if you're watching this on Friday, when the episode releases, hop in the car, drive up to Fort Wayne, just about 10 minutes North to Auburn, Indiana, uh, to the hangar.
Uh, and it's a great show. It's a 244 table show. Um, there's going to be some vintage. There's about 40 tables that are going to be gaming Pokemon and TCG and then the rest sports. But those types of shows are still seeing massive foot traffic. There's talk about this for a minute. Let's talk. Let's, let's go a little deeper with it. I love that. The point that you're making here, I think, so what I was saying about the AI stuff, so because I wasn't an early adopter of that, I was still able to do it, but it's definitely getting a little bit more competitive.
Your inventory has to be fresh. I am pivoting a lot of my low in eBay to low grade vintage of sets that people build, because that's perfect for incentivizing, incentivizing, multi quantity orders, and I'm targeting collectors that are actively collecting and not somebody that's trying to flip a $2 card into a $4 card. Right? So, um, there's those shifts there, but there was a time where if you could get a few thousand cards up on eBay, you're like, you won't believe we were all meeting people who were like, man, I made like three grand on junk with sitting in a box last week, right?
Right. So it became quick money. Then those people begin scratching their heads and saying, I could, I mean, you just set up tables. Everybody's going nuts for cards. I can get a space for cheap. I can get a space tomorrow. I know somebody, and I got tables and I don't mind setting them up or I have somebody I'll do it. This will be, and then what happens? There's like this perfect timing where everything is popping off. You and I remember this, like, uh, last fall, we're like, Oh, this is, we're not going, we thought there was going to be a longer dip coming off of COVID.
Yep. Bam. This, the shows were packed. All of you saw this. If you're listening in, right. Waitlist forever. You're waiting three months on a 50 table show to get a table at it. Right. Yeah. But here's the thing, and I believe this will be the differentiator for people's businesses too, as a market softens the people unwilling to do the work it takes to be successful as a show promoter are going to lose money and quit doing it very soon. And to that, I say that is a healthy market correction. Dealers that have been buying cards at 90% and trying to sell them at 120%.
Do you realize what happens if PSA gets enough of that repack market? And all of a sudden they say, you know, I'd like another 5%. Let's do 85%. Do you realize what happens to the singles market and shows and dealers? The moment 95% is now 85%. So I think there are people that will do just fine. There are people that will understand when a market softening, what to do. But when it comes to shows, if you're not actively promoting, it's not going to work. If you believe it is the dealer's job to promote your show, you have missed the point, what are we paying you for?
I'm not trying to be rude or mean that's literally it. And if you're somebody that we pay to go to your shows on a regular basis, clearly we think you promote your show. That was a rule I made. It's not about the size of the show for me. If I don't have confidence that that promoter is actively promoting the show and doing everything they can to make it a successful day for everyone, then why in the world would I put that effort in? Yes. Why would I get my butt up at five o'clock in the morning?
Why would I price out those cards all week? Why would I hand you my money? Period. Period. Why would I hand you my money? This show we're going up to in Fort Wayne. They have billboards that they've taken out on it. They're running ads. Now, listen, I'm not saying everybody's got to drop tons of money and do a huge show. That's not the point. The point is, if you're not actively promoting, you better really evaluate the money you're putting into renting out spaces. You better talk to somebody. Some of you should probably talk to a couple of other promoters in the same 30 minute radius and say, what if we went in on a space that could facilitate much more and promote this together?
You may come out way ahead on that. Right. But these are all indicators that things are changing a little bit and it's okay. It's okay. Let's, let's pivot that then Jason. Let's go, let's, that's a good segue for us to pivot right into the value box this week, which is how to navigate a market downturn as a dealer. Yeah. Let, let's, let's, let's dive into that. So we've talked about a little bit of this already, but let's kind of bullet this out and, and really talk about that. Because if you are watching this and you're listening to this and your car driving somewhere and you want to do this, these are things that you really need to be cognizant of.
And a lot of them are things that we've been pounding for years and people have laughed at us or said that we're, we're trying to take advantage of people or whatever else. Um, this is how businesses survive and thrive. Even when things aren't going perfect in the marketplace, anybody can do this when it's easy, the differentiator and the people who lasted and are longtime guys like Keith, who we interviewed last week, uh, are the guys who understand some of these core principles. So let's talk about this.
First thing you have to do identify where the market is shifting. What is it shifting out of? What is it shifting to, uh, watch for price trends and take that into account when you're buying things. Like we talk about all the time that last comp isn't important. And that's true. 99% of the time, unless it's a continuation of a trend. If you're watching a card do this, the last 15 sales, first one going back was a thousand, then it was nine 50 and then it's nine 20, then it's eight 30. And maybe it jumped back up to eight 70, but then it was, you know, seven 90.
And, and the sale that's the most recent is six 80. I'm not averaging anything anymore. Now we're projecting a perfect example of this one. Well, Jason's about to play show and tell, here we go. It's not, it's not like that. This is a perfect example. Keep talking, Gary. You're making me go up. It at that point I'm projecting. So now I'm not even going to base my offer off of six 80. I'm basing my offer off the fact that every sale has been five to 7% less than the last, and I'm assuming by the time I get the card I'm buying from somebody priced and in my showcase, there's going to be another two sales and I'm probably making an offer based off a six 50 at that point.
Look at this card in the last month. Let's see if I get the lighting right here. So this is a panini black, groovy, yoke, itch case hit, right? Or SSP. I can't remember. It's case it. Yep. This thing is almost cut in half from one month ago. What did you do wrong? Oh, not a thing. There was just more of a moment. It's a case hit, bro. This stuff is the safest investment. It's so liquid. How did this, how did this fall from 150, 160 bucks to 80 to a hundred dollars in short period of time? That's a trend.
That's an example. That's an example of something. This isn't though, right? The early Oh three Oh four Coby refractor, man. My lighting is atrocious. There we go. There you go. That's better. Well, it's the same thing with those are stabilized, right? Yeah, I bought this card this week. Okay. It came in the mail. It got here quick. Thanks to Tom Sheehan for hooking me up with this. This was a Facebook buy. This is 2005 upper deck baseball heroes. Tom Seaver on card game used patch number five of five.
There is one sale of this card ever Guess what? I probably have the only one available on the market So unless I'm a moron I can set the price pretty reasonably where I want Yeah And I know that eventually a siever collector or a long-term like baseball Hall of Fame Holder that wants to hold one of the best pitchers of all time In a super rare card, it's gonna grab it That card isn't getting cut in half in a month Right, you know that cards not getting cut in half in a year Well, yes, but there is a delicate balance here, right?
Like sure that sounds so sexy for dealers, right? Like I mean none of us know it's nothing we like hearing more than I'll go find another one now Screw you take I actually chimed in on a guy on tick-tock that was like I hate people that try to get a deal When it comes to those trends like yes, but you can't do nothing but sievers of five no You can you would need so much bankroll and volume and that yeah, yeah, and then talk about Resourcing that so there has to be a level of like liquidity Mixed in here. But when I look at trends what I'm saying is ultra modern stuff I got a downtown a downtown in here. That's dreamy. It's a dream. It's a dream Downtown in here that's dropped off $100. I bought it at 75% I'm okay But it's happening. It's happening in front of us and I'm not nervous about it because the people that pay attention Actually do the work of saying what is trending? What is falling is everything sinking then what is safe?
They're gonna thrive. I cannot wait To experience what buying might be like if I'm dialed in going into a softened market I was not equipped for this three years ago, right? But doing it enough and failing enough and buying wrong enough and buying enough case hits that fall off one week later Right, you're gonna learn you're still gonna make mistakes. I did on that card No clue was gonna soften like that, but there is an opportunity to capitalize So what trends would you focus in on right now then Gary if you see this softening?
Where do you feel like it's a little safer to? Play a little more over here. Yeah, you've got a it to me, especially on the ultra modern stuff You need to focus on numbered stuff you need to focus on stuff that has a at least to a certain point Verifiable print run. So for example, but you need to have enough of the little stuff if if I'm buying NFL stuff right now I'm buying one of two things Like I picked this up this week That is a non-numbered Drake May hobby only red I think these are one or two per box and it's a 400 card set so relatively rare card It's not numbered but the name is the right name right now Drake May stuff has been consistently going up However, I'm not gonna buy that same card of Caleb Williams what I will buy of Caleb Williams is Something like this is true NT rookie patch to 35, right?
There's way less risk of this card dropping off a cliff Because with such a limited card then there is of the case hit that you have there you know if I'm buying ultra modern stuff and then again, I'm always gonna be drawn to Stuff like this another ultra modern very rare card that will probably be a pop one forever Jackson cheerio RPA panini three and two. Yes unlicensed, but nasty patch. It's numbered to six It's the first on on print one of six in a PSA 10 super thick card will probably remain a pop one PSA 10 for a very long time and it's a young player that I like And it is you can't go wrong with Well, you have to be careful I I think you're right about this one thing that you and I talked about on whatnot That we've noticed and I think it's starting to carry further through the entire space It's not that players haven't mattered players have always mattered But when this case hit repack market popped off a year and a half ago where it was like Everybody knows a repack or they're selling to it became more about the product hit and a little bit less about the player Desmond Ritter, that's why it's happening $100 Yes Doing a year and a half ago. Like it was like years ago towns are 400 bucks It's sat there a long time with those Donner's downtown's optics six to eight and until they completely in their career Would hang out around there. Yeah, it shouldn't be like that So there's some of these corrections that are healthy case hit But if it's a product, there's a bajillion of and a few people buy yolkage for 80 That's where it's it that's right now or at least somewhere in between the two Yeah, the player matters Bucky Irving somebody everybody goes nuts for so like a little zebra case it it's the right player It'll matter but like you said if I do this with the wrong back that doesn't have the hobby love Yeah, I'd sit there a while unless I'm willing to give it on a discount Well, and that goes to the next point here with navigating a market downturn as a dealer Do not stretch from your comfort zone on big cards Unless you already have a buyer in mind you already kind of know where it's gonna go because you may end up parking a big chunk of your bankroll in your showcase for who knows how long and It's it's a really important point. I've looked at three or four cards and I'm gonna be very transparent here Jason I always try to be very transparent There are people that play this game that are rolling around with six-figure bankrolls as guys who set up at shows as dealers That ain't us. No, I'm usually liquid somewhere around 10 grand But as far as cash position goes and then I've got my inventory which floats between 25 and 35 grand like that's where I live And I've looked at a few cards in the last couple of months that I thought were great buys one of our friends had a well we interviewed him last week Keith had a show a Otani Uh, what was it a ultraviolet red to five on card auto and a PSA 9 was a gorgeous card I Probably could have got it for 70 ish percent of my liquid bankroll at the time But I didn't know where it was gonna go next I didn't know who I was potentially gonna sell it to and if that had sat in my showcase for a month I'd have been crippled, right?
Just a point of clarification here because when we talk numbers I what I want to be careful is we have people that are getting into this space that just write down a number Let me show me clarify something when he says he's carrying 10k liquid and 25 to 35 K That's with doing four shows a month. Maybe five. Yes, so it's a constant revolving door And you have to have enough margin that he completely lives off of that. So it has to be liquid enough Yeah, so that's that's the dance like that's the only time I push back on you when you hold up the seer Yes, that's cool. But it is not the majority of what you're selling. So it matters that we're paying attention to Curse to yeah. Yeah But just like the couple you held up the trio and some of those I would like Example on card Drake may rocky auto PSA 9. Yeah That stuff like that that stuff's gonna move but you've got to pay attention. So just anybody that's writing down It's not like you're there at that number and then you're set to go pay your bills You have to sell a large chunk of that every week and replenish it Constant grind Yeah My point being that I think that the vast majority of people doing this either full-time or part-time Are way closer to us as far as where their liquid position is Than they are to the guys who are dropping, you know, 50 60 K a week on cards 100 K a week on cards And and I say that to say that if you're planning on parking a big chunk of your bankroll somewhere Know where it is going and that you already have somebody in mind for it. Don't get in a downturn market Do not get you know Serenaded by the allure of a really cool card that you think you can make money on Yeah to the detriment of your ability to actually continue to play the game if you do that Make sure that it's on trend. I'll give an example of a card. I don't normally buy but I bought last month. Yep Laminia mall tops chrome Japan Blue mojo to 75 rookie. Okay big cup is coming up There's only a few names that I know only a few names anybody ever asked me about that's the truth Yeah, the Midwest that's how it works unless you're a soccer guy and then you have that stuff already Got a good deal on this really good deal Wasn't aware how much of a difference it made for it to be the Japan edition, but it is But that's one where I'm willing to play that game on trend. There are comps over 500 bucks on that card I was in the twos on that card Because there's an eight that went for a little less Anything could happen the market could soften going into the club. I mean, so Sometimes you're like, I don't buy soccer. What's the number? Here's the number. Okay, I'll take a chance at yeah But this is even a risk and there's people like oh If I sell it there if the market doesn't soften Yeah, that's a good one, but I wouldn't play a lot of those games guys I wouldn't chase too many trends the World Cup is coming up. This guy's a big deal. I'm buying that card, right?
Yeah, I probably would have paid a little stronger for this But if somebody would have said 80% I wouldn't do it and I know some of you think that is so dumb But if this market softens 10% be honest Look at your inventory right now if you're a dealer if this market moves even 10% which by the way Not that much movement 10% on a space like this Well say another 10% if you buy in this month and it's down 10% in January Are you sorry and we've been saying it for you over a year now if you're just chasing case hits at 90% This is in real time where you have to be careful Yep, it's and one of the thing we mentioned in that cut the nonsense interview for the first time We are starting to get pushback from repackers trying to squeeze a few more points after they do a deal trying to question comps Questioning this format or that format of a comp so they are feeling pressure or they would not be doing this, right?
There is a pressure now whatnot is actually watching their checklist If you say you have a case hit that's worth X and it's nowhere close to that. Guess what you're in trouble now So now they're working with real numbers You can't just buy up a box and say okay Let's double whatever this cost and make sure that we get paid after you know, the employees and fees and all that which is real But if that's starting to happen That's the first thing I would do would say anything that I don't have more than a 10% margin unless it's a big cart or a long hold Even with a big car being a special to move it That's up to you. It might be time to consider moving that and the bigger question becomes then If I've only been buying strong How do I move into getting a better margin? What type of stuff should I avoid?
Yeah, what are the things in my showcase that are gonna screw me over if this market dips it make a mental note right now Yeah, it's so important It's so important to recognize that when the market is moving down your margins that you buy at matter more than ever To Jason's point if you've been paying 80 to 90 percent of stuff and the market drops 25 to 30 percent in a downturn Which is about what this market normally does in a downturn You're dead You're dead if a card was worth a hundred bucks and you paid 85 for it and next week. It's worth 70 You're dead if you know, yes or no. I mean, let's be real we can you can if you can sell it You can move out and you have to buy right again It's not like gonna ruin you but on scale over your showcase if your whole show key That's my point because very few times when we're talking to people and you know This very few times are people paying 85 or 90 percent for one card That's just their buying model because that's the only way they can they think they can compete they're wrong But that's the only way they think they can compete Jason and I Have been pounding this drum for five years and if you just found us this year on video You've heard us pound this drum all year on this Tired of hearing it if It depending on the value of the card I'm paying between 50 and 70 percent 90 percent of the time I'll pay up to 80 percent on something that I'm a hundred percent. Sure is gonna move really fast or To Jason's point for me. It's a card that I don't care to hold for five years Otherwise, that's what I pay if you don't want to sell to me at that. I got no problem. Yeah, there's different bands you're being you're being a little dramatic because you had a really good month of sourcing, but Let's be honest 50% across the board scale Hold on Gary didn't say across the board. Well, that is important because you're implying it. I'm not gonna get quiet But when you said it 50 to 70 percent is what I pay for 90% of the stuff I buy I would say that's been true based off of your sourcing over the last month and a half That is not the reality you live in at a card show You did you're not hanging out at 50 60 percent on a regular basis Depending on what the band of the card is if your cards worth less than 50 bucks. I just am I have a different opinion I just I don't think that you're consistent with I don't think that is the number of like everybody you can go buy it 50 to 70 percent I Didn't say I again What do we talk about all the time?
What's the I will die number sounds cute. I don't know that you've had a good month of sourcing I'm saying I on this hill Jason the reason that most dealers not repackers dealers pay as strong as they do is Because they don't have the communication skills necessary to pay less It's harder work to buy than it is to sell I disagree. Oh, it's agree with communication skill thing. I think there are excellent communicators that have bankroll, that don't have 10k cash, that roll in with 200k, and they're going to move at that 10% margin over and over. And they're going to buy 50 downtowns in the same show and move it. Now, if the market shifts on them quickly and they're sitting on that, they're going to lose on that stuff. But there are people playing a different game. There are people who have had that liquid position where they can absolutely pay stronger and it's a sales velocity thing for them.
And they're going to lose that liquid position quickly in a downturn if they keep trying to play that game. I know, but I'm saying you are creating a fairytale scenario where, hey, just go pay 50 to 70% when you can, sure. But let's not pretend. Okay, so hold on, hold on, timeout, timeout, timeout. Walking up to your table, what percentage of the cards do you buy at that 50 to 60% range? Oh, it's going to be anything that's under 50 bucks in value. So I'm asking you, like what percentage? So if you spent 10 grand on cards?
In the 50 to 60% range, 20 to 25% of it, because that's the stuff that's under 50 bucks. And then 60 to 70%? Probably another 25 to 30%. And then 75% would be another 40% and then 10% at 80. Okay. That paints a better picture because that statement was a wide sweeping one. And when you start throwing the numbers you have out there, what I don't want to do is tell people, here's how you address this in a downturn. I agree. Just start buying at 50%. It's not that simple. It is hard work. It takes relationships. What I said came across as implying- It was like this. Yeah. No, no, no. That was not- That's what that was. That's what that was.
Point that I'm trying to make is that if you are not trying and making a concerted effort to adjust the margin that you buy at to account for the market doing this, as we see a downturn, what feels like a downturn in the market starting to happen, you're screwing yourself. Unless you are 100% sure that you can move at that same show or move it within a week, or you've already got a buyer for it, if you're buying it because you think it's cool enough that somebody's eventually going to want it, protect yourself. That's my point.
And I don't disagree with that at all. You're completely right about the communication thing, but I do think there are more than one way. There's more than one way to do this. And there are people that do it effectively. They're inheriting a lot more risk, but they're also inheriting a lot more volume of inventory by paying stronger. So it's a delicate dance. But that volume of inventory loses value. Now you either are stuck hoping that you get all your money back and you're stubborn about it, or you are willing to take your loss and move on.
Depends on how quickly it falls and how quickly you move through your inventory. Sure, but- People are successful at moving on those 10% margins that move through 40%. I mean, we know guys that do this. They set up at the show. They're there for two hours. Their cases are empty. They do it twice a month. It's already sold. So there are situations. What I'm trying to do is say, there are ways to do this, but this is us just putting up some warning signs and saying, hey, you better know where you are. If you're buying at that percentage, how quickly do you sell through rate may be the better thing for them to look at, right?
Yeah, well- My hunch is you're going to be screwed on what you already have in your inventory a little bit right now. The reason why my point and the point we're trying to make is so important leads into our next thing. And we said this very early on this episode, but it's very much worth repeating. That stuff you're talking about, that those folks are moving so fast and they make their 10% margins on, great. Those are being sold primarily to repackers and other flippers. When a market downtrends, those flippers disappear.
The repack stuff softens to where now they're not paying 92%. Now they're paying 80 to 85%. And the people they have running around for them are trying to pay 70 to 75%. That's the point I'm trying to make. That's the thing I would be more focused on. Remember, it's really important. This is why some of the stuff we've been showing you card-wise today, when those flippers disappear, what's left are the actual collectors. And I have, with maybe one or two exceptions in all the years I've been doing this, with maybe one or two exceptions, have I sold a big case hit or something that's considered super liquid to a collector?
So you need to have inventory that collectors want. I have a lot of regular customers who are collectors. I'm throwing a flag on that one. Go ahead. There are people that collect downtowns. There are people that collect whatever the new shiny thing is of their favorite players and who's hot in the market. Collecting does not have to be what we love. It does not have to be this Marshawn Lynch Letterman rookie patch, right? There's no sales of it. But it's been in my showcase for four or five months, right? I don't disagree with the fact that people do.
Let me finish my thought. Let me finish my thought. I don't think there's guys waiting to come out of the woodwork when the margins change for this stuff. I don't think there's excess of collectors out there. No, that's not what I'm saying. That's not what I said at all. What I said was, I have not sold a downtown or a Kaboom or something like that because I know who my customers are. Those always go to repackers out of my showcase. One or two exceptions in years of doing this. What I'm saying is that you need to have things in your showcase, in your inventory, that are more centered to a collector, right? The people who come to our tables, people that come to my table, and I think you would say the same thing. Correct me if I'm wrong.
We have a lot of regulars who have a very specific niche that they collect. If I have the stuff that they collect, they're going to buy it. They're not going to argue with my price tag. They're not going to pull their phone out and check a bunch of comps on it. They have a feel for what the market is for the things that they collect. If it's priced right and they like it, they're going to buy it. My point is not that you need to fill your showcase with the stuff that you like as a dealer or for me to fill the showcase with stuff that I like as a dealer, but you want to have the type of things that those customers who are going to be the ones left after the flippers move away want. I have several customers who collect 90s football. They'll buy any color, any player, whatever it is. I have vintage guys. You have a lot more vintage guys than I do, but I'm starting to get into some of that cool stuff like this Jackie Robinson. It's a PSA 1. It's not a massive card. This is not a card that somebody flipping cards is going to come through and buy, but somebody who collects Jackie Robinson is. Somebody who collects interesting, unique vintage stuff under 500 bucks is. That's my point.
Yeah, I think there's a need for some clarity around what we talk about with downturn. I don't believe we're in a market softening where all the flippers are leaving. I'm not convinced it's there yet, but I do think that the singles market will get hit the hardest with this and the multiplier on this. The gas on the fire is going to be what happens to repack offers. If there's a downturn, how many of these slaps? Just think about this. How many millions of dollars in slaps has PSA picked up to sell to repackers in the last two months? We have no way to know. Millions upon millions upon millions at 90%. Now they're already down. If half of these are down 80%, if they're down 20% or 10% or whatever it is, at some point they're going to want that money back and the offers are probably going to change. If you've been depending on one relationship in that flipping space, that's where I completely agree with you, Gary.
If you've been depending on that one repacker to make you whole every month, if you've been depending on that one buyback option, you need to diversify that a little bit and not have all of it in one spot because it just takes a little bit of a shift in that for so much to change for your business. Yep. Diversify your selling channels, which is the next thing that was on our list here to talk about. Something Jason and I have been actively discussing for the last two or three weeks is how do we diversify our selling channels?
Jason already does this to an extent because he has his eBay store. However, his eBay store inventory and his showcase inventory are very, very different for the most part. I've talked about firing eBay back up, although it makes me sad to even think about doing eBay drives me crazy, but it's probably going to be a necessary evil as I try to diversify my selling channels. Counting on one or two people to make you whole, counting on one or two shows to make you whole and make your nut every single month is not realistic.
Being able to have channels from shows to online, to Instagram, to Facebook, like creating different ways to sell your inventory and different ways to refresh your inventory is going to be really, really important. I think that talking about a market downturn, very clear, neither Jason nor I is screaming crash. I'm not worried. I'm going to capitalize. The people that handle this right, you are going to have the opportunity in this window of time to accelerate the growth in your business in a way you haven't before if you're willing to put in the work. It's going to be a lot of work. I think we see a very similar market to what we saw the very tail end of 2022 into early 2024.
The market went down about 30% to 35% across the board in 2023. It was still plenty of volume moving, but people just weren't paying as much for things. Then we saw it start to heat back up again in mid-2024. Then it really started taking off into 2025. We've had about a 10 to 12 month window here where it's been banging. I think we're going to see that decline again. That's how this hobby always works. There's been one or two massive crash points in the last 40 years in the hobby when the junk wax era exploded, 2012, 13-ish when there was just not much good as far as new rookies or anything else. We had a really big downturn that was like a 50% to 70% downturn both of those times. Other than that, usually it's a 25% to 30% dip. Then we plateau and then we start to build up again and we get a little higher than the last peak. The next four will be higher than the scale. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think talk to the LCS owners that have been around a while. Talk to the Keith Newharts out there and say, hey, you've been through a few of these.
What do you have to do? Almost every one of them will say, we couldn't stay siloed on one thing. We had to start focusing on singles. We had to start focusing on wax. We had to consider breaking. We had to sell it on eBay. We had to do whatnot. This is the new model. Doing multiple things for your revenue as a card business owner is how it works. This is the best defense you have against the market downturn. Yeah. I'm making shifts with me. One of the things I wrote down is niche down where possible. I'll tell you, Gary and I did not expect this, but we found baseball never really cooled off that much. Nope. For the first time in a long time, baseball did not cool off. Obviously, Shohei's crazy year, awesome World Series, big marketing, got Toronto getting in the mix. You had a lot of reasons why people were excited, but pay attention to where the money's moving. Ultra modern baseball is staying pretty warm.
It's not something I spent a lot of time on. We were so football heavy because coming off of the 2019, 2020, 2021, where football was everything in the space, we were saying, hey, this will hold up, this will hold up. It shifts, it changes. Niche down where possible. The people that are most effective, I believe this, the most effective and efficient dealers on whatnot are very specific about what they run. I'll give him flowers right now. Alex Clever Cuban Cards has been an open book with how he runs his business. He does baseball. He does ultra modern baseball. He averages about 12 bucks a sale. He'll tell you what he's buying, what's selling, what's not, and he doesn't vary from that. He doesn't feel the need to race up to $300 cards and yell at people with mags and everything. That's not the world he's in. He niched down. It was smart.
For some of you, you've been dabbling with a little bit of everything. As you start to feel some pressure happening with the softening of the market, I'd really encourage you to say, are there sports I don't sell as much of because I'm just not as interested, that I don't follow as much, that I don't stay on top of? Okay then, for that sport, I'm only going to get X, Y, and Z. I'll show you a couple. Basketball, I made this decision. I'll maybe have two or three of the big guys, but I'm buying cheaper stuff. I'm not getting big stuff, but the basketball I do buy is the soul of the game. It's going to be game use patches of guys like Barkley. It's going to be short printed Kobe stuff. Like, I mean, it doesn't have to be a big card or this one was really cool. I picked up this week, the dunk masters, right? I'm going to go after an era that I know people buy and players that I know are liquid. And beyond that, I'm not interested in following the box score on NBA. I'm not interested in playing that high volatility game. All my peers did and lost their hats on during COVID. So I think that's really important to niche down. If there's a sport you're less interested in, move the modern stuff out, buy five or 10 cards of the right names, find a price point that people are spending on, or say, I don't do basketball, or I don't do baseball, or I don't want to mess with vintage, but you got to get more specific with vintage. I'm, I'm making a shift. My lower grade stuff's going to go to eBay. I'm going to try to buy slabs that are higher grade five and better because I think that promotes liquidity. Now, what do I have to do to make that change?
I've got to pay about 80%. There will be some vintage deals that walk up, but if I have high grade vintage at 80%, there's vintage dealers right now be like, take that all day and run with it. If you can get it, there are sectors that are a little different. So while I'm a little I'm nervous at 80%, the beautiful thing about vintage is you have way more data. You can look, I mean, you can look back way further on the trends, what's happening with the car, and that 80% usually doesn't float around a five to $10 range like a lot of the ultra modern does.
It's usually maybe like a 50 or $150 spread. So depending on the eye appeal, those things, it's gotta land in that range, but niche down. And then maybe focus on era. Maybe, you know, one thing I found is when I started putting late 90s basketball stuff in, I had people coming directly to my table looking for that because everybody else was trying to sell Chet Holmgrens and John Morantz and Anthony Edwards, and those guys are cool and Wim Binyamas and that's fine, but there's not a ton of people with really cool late 90s or early 2000s basketball and affordable of that era.
Like if you can find nice under $250 NBA stuff of the right names, like you've got something there. You've probably got a repeat buyer every month that's gonna spend money with you as long as you put the work in. So it's easy to point at the market and the whales and the repackers and this and that, but you and I have to constantly evolve our sourcing, our inventory, depending on the market demand. And so niching down, while it seems like it's gonna be less effective because you have less to choose from, you'll find yourself far more focused and efficient by saying no to some things.
Yeah, I think that that's a really good point. I think one of the things that it's easy to fall into the trap of is to feel like you have to have something for everyone, right? Like you have to be Walmart at your sports card show. Some of the most successful people in this business that I know are people who, like Jason said, are like they're known for X and that's what they do. And they don't try to do anything else. And if you can do that and you're able to do it at a margin that makes sense, you can be very, very successful.
One of the other points that Jason made that I wanted to just reiterate before we move on to these last couple of points here in the value box is he said something that I wanna make sure you understand. He was talking about spread, right? It's less real on ultra modern stuff, but when you're talking about like stuff that's mid modern and vintage, and we say mid modern, like 90s to mid 2000s, that mid modern area and vintage stuff, guys who are retired, guys who aren't gonna have new performances or blow an ACL out or anything like that.
When you're buying, if you find stuff that has a really good spread, and by spread what we mean is over the last 30 sales, there are sales as high as $500 and as low as $300. And not a lot of real outliers either way beyond that. And you can find a good example of that card and buy it right based on the bottom end of that spread or the bottom middle of that spread. You're really giving yourself a lot of flexibility. Is that a good enough explanation of that? Yeah, no, that's perfect. 1970, I'm gonna show the secret.
The camera's reversed so I'm all messed up. 70 bench in a PSA 7, right? I'm stickered towards the top end of that. There are comps at 330, 350. I think there was one even higher than that. And there's comps at 250 to 275. But the presentation matters. Is it the newer slab? There's a lot of things to consider. Gordy Bonker really addressed this because I was like, so how does this work? Like if it's more centered, I should be at the top and the bottom. He said, you just have to be within the range, but then you have to be okay with the buyer saying, this looks more like the ones at the bottom end of this range, right?
And if you wanna get in a tug of war over that, like that range can work both ways. So Gary's making a good point. Look at the range. Yeah, it may have a couple of comps at 330, 350, but it's got comps at 260, 280. So it has to be a beautiful example of a card or one that you know you have a buyer that's been looking for and doesn't mind paying towards the top of market for it. Yep, yep, yep. So the next to last point here we wanna make. The last two points kind of go together. So I don't think we'll need to separate them out.
I think the conversation will just kind of flow. One of the things Jason said a little bit ago, I don't know if you heard it cause he was quick with it, is he's kind of excited for this downturn that we've kind of feel coming. Because here's the reality. Anytime things get a little harder, lazy people quit. Anytime that buying gets a little harder or selling gets a little harder or it's a little tighter this week than next. And lazy people quit. And that leaves a huge opportunity if you're willing to put the work in, if you've prepared yourself, if you have the bankroll to do it, you can really put yourself in position to thrive when the market ticks back up again.
Yeah, I agree. There's gonna be a few potential opportunities. I think one of the first places people will move out of if this market softens is the low end. The low end is the most labor intensive side of this unless you're just throwing things in a box, not marking them and then make everybody else do the work of comping when they pull the card out, right? If you're doing that, those guys aren't gonna be around much longer anyway, unless you just have loaded boxes and you're kind of giving stuff away.
As that happens, I do think there'll be a little bit less competition. People on eBay are gonna quit listing every day if it's that much work to keep the metrics up. And those of you that just never quit listing and shipping every day are gonna thrive. You'll get a little bit of opportunity there. There'll also be people moving out of value, box stuff. You'll have opportunities to buy more full boxes. As people niche down, they just wanna get their part cash out. So I think there'll be some good buying opportunities there.
More collections are gonna be available this ultra modern stuff in the last few years. SGC nine fives. I haven't heard too many people talk about it, but at the point where there's a turnaround time that makes sense where you're not gonna lose a year of your life, it might make sense for you to crack and resub if you find some unique stuff. I'll give you an example of one I've got. It's a weird one. Frank Diamond or Frank Thomas Hope Diamond to 60 and a nine five. This is an SGC nine five and a 10.
That's quite a multiplier on that set. Oh yeah. But there may be opportunities there. That's a lot more risky. That's not a game I play a lot. I don't have a ton of confidence in the consistency of PSA, but there will be opportunities there. But I think that balance of the liquid and the collectible is super important. You wanna do a little show and tell here as we wrap up, if you have a follow up there. No, I think that you nailed that. At the end of the day, guys, it's this simple. We want you to be successful.
Sometimes we say things that may sound a little harsh or a little too direct. Nobody's ever accused me of being diplomatic. We want you to be successful. That's why we do this stuff. That's why we've leaned into the value box this year. That's why we've given you guys the blueprint that we've used to do what we do. Like it, dislike it, whatever. At least somebody's out here doing that for you and not trying to charge you a fee for it. But don't mistake a downturn in a market for something that you should panic over.
If you approach it the right way, if you're willing to make adjustments to the way you do business, there really is a world of opportunity that is about to be put in front of you if you're ready for it. That's how I would wrap that up, Jason. Yeah, go into show and tell. All right, so first thing I'm gonna show is a few cards I purchased that are end-user specific. So I would definitely, I showed you this Hope Diamond. Frank Thomas, that would go in that category. Marshawn Lynch, Rookie Letterman, the 25.
That's never sold. PSA 8, Pop 1. I'll probably price a little strong on that. There's no comp. Trying to figure out where that should be. Here's a nasty one. Moist Gracie, I've mentioned this before. That's number to eight, Patch Auto, never sold. That's gonna take a while to sell. But I have a hunch that when somebody's looking for this, they're gonna see the value that's on that card. You can do it with Ultra Modern too. This is a great example. Topps Japan, L.A. Daily Cruise, Rookie Auto, the 25.
Never sold, no comps. Only a couple comps on that whole set of autos, the 25. But when somebody's looking for a unique L.A. piece that they're not gonna find anywhere else, that Topps Japan would be perfect for them. This week I'm going to Fort Wayne. Here's a buyback 2001 Peyton Manning on-card auto, number to 13. It's weird. You're not gonna find a lot of comps on it. But somebody that collects Peyton is gonna say, I've not seen that one. That one's a little bit unique. So those would be some examples of the collector end-user type of stuff we talk about.
You wanna show a few of yours, and then we'll show some of the liquid modern? Yeah, I mean, throughout this episode, I've shown most of these, but I'll go a little bit more in depth with it. This was a really fun pickup. 1998 Bowman Chrome, Hall of Famer Daryl Green. This is the golden anniversary parallel. It's numbered to 50. The card has never sold anywhere. Like, it's a ghost card. So like no recorded sales ever of the card. I showed you the more ultra modern version of something like that. The Jackson Shurio PSA 10 RPA out of Panini three and two.
The Tom Seaver is just a ridiculously awesome card. You can see that patch game used on card, Hall of Fame auto of what most people, a lot of people consider the best righty of the modern era. I showed you the Jackie Robinson. Ultra modern wise, I guess this would fall into that too. Although it's not super rare, it's just a very low pop. First year, Topps Chrome, Tom Brady. It's 2002, but it was his first year that Topps made cards of him and a PSA 10. Just the true, not a refractor, not anything.
And it's all day, a seven to $800 card. When it comes to more liquid stuff, I'll show you a few of the things that I'll grab. I'll go after the names. That's kind of my filter. Ultra modern, what names are selling. Second filter, what price point makes sense? Where if something moves up or down, I'm not getting hurt. That's a very important note for you to make if you're not doing that. So like stuff like this, Jackson Dart, Rookie Jumbo Patch, right? It's number to what, 75? Yeah, Rookie Chunky Patch.
People are going nuts over the kid. I will get weird case hits that look cool, that slow people down, like the Garbage Pail Kids Pooholes. Now this is one that, great example, this, like the yolk, it fell off hard. I just waited long enough. It was in a showcase at a dealer, with a dealer for quite a while. I said, hey, I know this has been here a little bit. Are you interested in moving it? If we can kind of establish a current value? Sure, no problem. Pick that up. And then these still happen, that shows.
Show hey, Rookie 10 walks up to the table. That's gonna sell probably in the first 10 minutes, as soon as it hits the showcase, right? So I try to balance that, but I wanna make sure that the cool stuff, the Yamal, the Hoyce, those cards, I make sure that I get those right, right. I have to try to target that super low percentage, because I'm literally parking this. I know it is going to take a long time to sell this card, and parked money is a, it's still money. Now people selling to you might not care, but you have to, you have to.
And that was the point I was trying to make earlier, when you threw a flag on me. I'll do it again, Gary. When I was looking for something to throw. When I'm buying those really unique things like Jason was talking about, like that Tom Seaver I just showed you guys, I have that conversation with people. When I say that a lot of dealers don't have the communication skills, that probably sounded really harsh. I know you didn't mean that, but that's how it sounds. Most people don't take the time to explain their reasoning when they're making offers to people.
That's fair. I do. I tell people, hey, I think this card's probably worth $500, but it might take a year to sell. And if I'm gonna park money for a year, I have to take into account what that money could do for me on more liquid things that will likely sell by the end of the show. And I have to take that into account when I'm making you an offer. If that works for you, let's talk. And if it doesn't, I totally understand. Now, not too many people. Don't try that. Don't try to do that with this card.
No, no, no, no, no. No, buddy, if you're listening, you try that crap with them, it's dishonest. It's this genuine, and you just lost the opportunity to buy from them for a lifetime. Yes. I guarantee it. And you're a jerk. That's dishonest. It's just dishonest. It has to be done in an ethical and honest way. But like I said, that Tom Seaver is a super cool card, but it legitimately might sit in my showcase for six, eight, 10 months. I have a Tom Landry cut auto from 2009 Upper Deck Black. Still got that.
I've still got it. I've had it for seven months. You like looking at it though, don't you? Yeah, but it's one of those cards that I had to buy at a price that made sense because I knew how long it might sit. So that's the point. For the ultra modern, like super liquid stuff, for me, it's even a little bit more. Like Jason had like the non-numbered Otani's and stuff. This is a card I picked up this week. I would not have bought this card unless it was numbered. Xavier Worthy Color Match PSA 10. If that was a base PSA 10, would not have touched it with a 10 foot pole.
Drake May unlicensed, but on card auto. Yes, I'm gonna buy that when it makes sense. I showed you the Caleb Williams already. I showed you the Drake May. Like names matter on the ultra modern stuff. The stuff that's hot right now, I will grab because I know it's gonna be gone fast, but it has to fit in. I'll give you my hot take. I'm gonna give you a hot take. I think that now in this downturn, if stuff becomes more affordable, this is something I will be actively buying. This is an example of it.
Old school, triple threads, patch autos. Like this is a Freddy Freeman. It's auto numbered to nine. You might be surprised how low some of these comp out. And if there's a little bit of a downturn, I don't know exactly how much of a push into some of these products are gonna go across all three sports. I don't know any of that. It's speculation. It is what it is. That's something I'm interested. The baseball market's hot. I'm only gonna go after the right names, but filthy patch autos numbered to nine?
Yep. Now, this gets weird. This gets weird because if you know triple threads, it's like, well, that one said slugging. But the one that said what you're said did 500 and this one did so be conservative But also think about there's a there's a little bit of a mental shift. That is what I'm trying to encourage Think about what could go right to Yeah What can I be making? Yeah plan for the worst? hope for the best and Also have a positive something going on like Gary and I've been putting away home-field advantages like crazy and there and that To pay off So guys, hopefully you found this helpful what we forget. Well, hope he found it helpful before we leave I got to tell you what uncle Terry did. Oh Yeah, so he so apparently Jerome Bettis did not want his jersey from the Super Bowl to be cut up into a patch and Uncle Terry was able to get him to do it. So we got to show He's crazy you got it Steelers won the Super Bowl in Detroit. It was damn mayhem down there and Panini comes to me and says uncle Terry We can't get access to Jerome Bettis. No matter what we do. We cannot find those jerseys Can you get a hold of Jerome? And I said well, let me see what I can do here And everyone knows I know everyone in damn Detroit So I called Jerome and I said bud I'm gonna need some of that jersey and he said, oh no, and I said I know Don't kill the messenger here, but I'm just your uncle. I'm coming to get his family here, but panini Old panini, but they need that jersey to cut up and give the fans in a card. And he said Terry I Want you to personally deliver this to the panini family and tell them this one comes from the heart and this one comes from Detroit and I made that promise I Walked up to the panini family handed them the jerseys and said cut them up as you will This one comes from the heart. This one comes from Detroit Look at that card All right guys that wraps up this episode thanks so much for hanging out on our virtual snowed in Ohio Yeah, we did get snowed in For those of you that don't know you can follow us on YouTube socials at the borrowed card show a new episode drops Every single Friday at noon. We are live on whatnot at 4 30 p.m. Every single Sunday This is all Eastern Time and maybe ups throughout the week I did a pop-up this week. We'll be doing more of those Gary and I individually This has been the ball card show the eSports podcast for the sports collector. Bye now. Peace